One Reason Countries Pay Their Debts: Renegotiation And International Trade

Topics:
Global Strategy
Tags:
Federal Reserve Bank Of New York,
Finance,
Financial Accounting,
Trade
Source:
Federal Reserve Bank of New York

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Overview: This article estimates the effect of sovereign debt renegotiation on international trade. Sovereign default may be associated with a subsequent decline in international trade either because creditors want to deter default by debtors, or because trade finance dries up after default. To estimate the effect, the article uses an empirical gravity model of bilateral trade and a large panel data set covering fifty years and more than 200 trading partners. The model controls for a host of factors that influence bilateral trade flows, including the incidence of International Monetary Fund programs. The decline in bilateral trade is approximately 8 percent a year and persists for about fifteen years.

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Format: PDF | Size: 219KB | Date: Jan 2002 | Pages: 37


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