Scenario Planning
- Topics:
- Strategy Formulation
- Tags:
- Internet,
- Management,
- Productivity,
- Scenario,
- Strategy
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Overview: Traditional forecasting techniques often fail to predict significant changes in the firm's external environment, especially when the change is rapid and turbulent or when information is limited. Consequently, important opportunities and serious threats may be overlooked and the very survival of the firm may be at stake. Scenario planning is a tool specifically designed to deal with major, uncertain shifts in the firm's environment. Scenario planning has its roots in military strategy studies. It is not about predicting the future. Rather, it attempts to describe what is possible. The result of a scenario analysis is a group of distinct futures, all of which are plausible. The article discusses various steps of scenario planning which are adopted by the organization. Some of these are: specifying the scope of the planning and its time frame, development of a clear understanding that will serve as the common departure point for each of the scenarios, identifying predetermined elements that are virtually certain to occur and that will be driving forces and many more. scenarios. The article describes some scenario planning steps and the proces in detail.
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Format: HTML | Date: Jan 2003 | Pages: 1
