Current Real Estate Default Risk: Will History Repeat Itself ?

Topics:
Market Studies
Tags:
Business Operations,
CB Richard Ellis,
Loan,
Management,
Real Estate,
Risk,
Strategy
Source:
CB Richard Ellis

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Overview: "Real Estate Markets have seen a great deal of turmoil over the last 9 months. This uncertainty has been anything but uniform. Strong, and retail properties seem little affected. Throughout all of this, mortgage delinquencies on seasoned loans have moved up a bit, but are nowhere near the levels experienced in the early 1990s. This paper, aim to accomplish three objectives. First, review what is known about commercial loan default and losses in the past. Secondly, using forwardlooking approach the future risks facing each property type are examined and forecasts of aggregate default probabilities and expected loss are presented for loans originated at the end of 2001. Finally, summary statistics are provided and explained that show a very large difference in these risk levels across US metropolitan markets."

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Format: PDF | Size: 68KB | Date: Jul 2002 | Pages: 17

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