Understanding The Use Of Forecasting Systems: An Interpretive Study In A Supply-Chain Company
- Topics:
- Forecasting
- Source:
- University of Bath
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Overview: Managers in a supply-chain company believed that they were making extensive use of the demand forecasts generated by an expensive forecasting system that is marketed on the basis of the accuracy of its advanced statistical methods. Yet the majority of the forecasts were obtained by using the system's facility for judgmentally overriding the automatic statistical forecasts. These judgmental forecasts, ostensibly based on qualitative market intelligence, were then represented and understood as being the output of the system. Carrying out the judgmental interventions involved considerable management effort and time, yet in a large proportion of cases it served only to reduce forecast accuracy. This paper uses observations of the forecasting process, semi-structured interviews with participants and data on the accuracy of forecasts to investigate the reasons.
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Format: PDF | Size: 181KB | Date: Aug 2007 | Pages: 43
