Forecasting Repeat Sales at CDNOW: A Case Study
- Topics:
- Forecasting
- Tags:
- CDNow,
- Forecasting,
- Institute For Operations Research,
- Sales,
- Sales Force Management,
- Sales Strategy
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Overview: The author conducted a modeling exercise in conjunction with the online music retailer CDNOW to develop a simple stochastic model of buyer behavior capable of forecasting medium-term aggregate CD purchasing by a cohort of new customers. The author modeled weekly sales using a finite mixture of beta-geometric distributions with a separate time-varying component to capture nonstationarity in repeat buying. The resulting model can easily be implemented within a standard spreadsheet environment (for example, Microsoft Excel). It does a good job of describing the underlying sales patterns and produces an excellent medium-term forecast.
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Format: PDF | Size: 133KB | Date: Jun 2001 | Pages: 14
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