Providing Support for the Use of Analogies in Demand Forecasting Tasks
- Topics:
- Forecasting
- Tags:
- Forecasting,
- Judgment,
- Management Judgment,
- Sales,
- Sales Force Management,
- Sales Promotion,
- Sales Strategy,
- University Of Bath
- Source:
- University of Bath
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Overview: Management judgment is widely used to adjust statistical forecasts in order to take into account special events, such as sales promotions. There is evidence that forecasters often use analogous past events to estimate the effects of a future special event. An experiment was carried out to investigate whether a forecasting support system which provides users with guidance on similarity judgments and support for adaptation judgments could lead to more accurate forecasting of the effects of sales promotions. The experiment suggested that a simple, and easily implemented, form of adaptation support could significantly improve forecast accuracy under some conditions. The results also indicated that the support would be likely to be acceptable to potential users of the system.
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Format: PDF | Size: 587KB | Date: Nov 2005 | Pages: 30
