Accuracy and Forecast Standard Error of Prediction Markets
- Topics:
- Forecasting
- Source:
- University of Iowa
FREE Registration is required
Overview: "Prediction markets" are designed specifically to forecast events. Though such markets have been conduced for more than a decade, to date there is no analysis of their long-run predictive properties. This paper provides the first systematic evidence on the long-run predictive power of these markets by studying ex post accuracy and means of measuring ex ante forecast standard errors. Ex post, prediction markets prove accurate at long and short forecasting horizons, in absolute terms and relative to natural alternative forecasts. Thus, random walk projections generate reasonable confidence intervals. These confidence intervals differ dramatically from margins of error quoted in polls.
(Is this item miscategorized? Does it need more tags? Let us know.)
Format: PDF | Size: 407KB | Date: Jul 2003 | Pages: 47
People who downloaded this item also downloaded
 |
Implementing Activity-Based Cost Accounting, Customer Profitability, and Product-Line Analysis In a Distribution Business |
