Structured Analogies for Forecasting

Topics:
Analysis,
Forecasting
Tags:
Analogy,
Forecasting,
Sales,
Sales Force Management
Source:
Monash University

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Overview: When people forecast, they often use analogies, but in an unstructured manner. This paper proposes a structured judgmental procedure that involves asking experts to list as many analogies as they can, rate how similar the analogies are to the target situation, and match the outcomes of the analogies with possible outcomes of the target. Structured analogies were compared with unaided judgments for predicting the decisions made in eight conflict situations.

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Format: PDF | Size: 476KB | Date: Nov 2004 | Pages: 28

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