A Bayesian Model for Prelaunch Sales Forecasting of Recorded Music

Topics:
Forecasting
Tags:
Album,
Bayesian,
Institute For Operations Research,
Sales,
Sales Force Management,
Sales Forecast,
Sales Strategy
Source:
Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences

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Overview: In a situation where several hundred new music albums are released each month, producing sales forecasts in a reliable and consistent manner is a rather difficult and cumbersome task. The purpose of the study presented in this paper is to obtain sales forecasts for a new album before it is introduced. It allows for the generalization of various adoption patterns out of discrete data and can be applied in a situation where the eventual number of adopters is unknown. Using sales of previous albums along with information known prior to the launch of a new album, the model constructs informed priors, yielding pre launch sales forecasts, which are out-of-sample predictions.

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Format: PDF | Size: 842KB | Date: Feb 2003 | Pages: 18

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