Probabilistic Methods for Uncertainty Propagation Applied to Aircraft Design
- Topics:
- Mechanical and Industrial
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Overview: This white discusses about three methods of probabilistic uncertainty propagation and quantification (the method of moments, Monte Carlo simulation, and a non gradient simulation search method) are applied to an aircraft analysis and conceptual design program to demonstrate design under uncertainty. The chosen example problems appear to have discontinuous design spaces and thus these examples pose difficulties for many popular methods of uncertainty propagation and quantification. The effects of specifying required levels of constraint satisfaction with specified levels of input uncertainty are also demonstrated. The results show, as expected, that the designs under uncertainty are typically heavier and more conservative than those in which no input uncertainties exist.
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Format: PDF | Size: 566KB | Date: Jun 2002 | Pages: 18
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